Odds are, Ford CEO Jim Farley and Normal Motors CEO Mary Barra have both already voted within the election or will on Tuesday. Fortunately, although, we have now completely no thought who which candidate they really help. Your guess is about pretty much as good as mine. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, alternatively, has made it abundantly clear that he’s all-in for Trump. And he doesn’t simply need Trump to win — he’s spending hundreds of thousands and actively campaigning on his behalf. If Trump wins, Musk and his firms will completely profit, however what occurs if the convicted felon loses?
It definitely isn’t unlawful or unprecedented for a billionaire CEO to make use of their cash and affect in an try and sway the election in favor of their most well-liked candidate, and but, Musk should still discover himself in authorized bother over his political motion committee’s attainable violation of human trafficking legal guidelines, the attainable mendacity on his immigration paperwork and his buddy-buddy relationship with enemy dictator Vladimir Putin. That’s not even the whole record, only a handful of essentially the most fast points that deserve investigating.
Nonetheless, we don’t know the way aggressively the Harris administration would go after Musk, particularly within the months instantly following her inauguration. In spite of everything, there’s an opportunity that post-election and post-inauguration right-wing violence will trigger greater than its justifiable share of distractions. They’re already burning poll packing containers, so there’s no purpose to imagine they’ll take a Trump loss peacefully. No matter what any investigation concludes, although, the wheels of justice flip slowly, and he in all probability gained’t face any precise penalties for some time, if he ever does.
You can also’t overlook about that complete two-tiered justice system we have now that appears particularly geared towards retaining the wealthy out of jail. If his cozy little nighttime chats with Putin weren’t sufficient to forestall the Pentagon from utilizing SpaceX to launch a community of spy satellites, it’s onerous to have a lot religion that the Harris administration gained’t proceed her predecessor’s coverage of merely letting him get away with every thing.
Whether or not it’s for present or one thing he truly believes, Musk’s habits on Twitter recently definitely suggests he isn’t assured his standing because the richest particular person on the planet will hold him secure. Along with all his different rubbish tweets, Musk can also be spreading the concept Democrats plan to destroy him, and in his interview with TV dinner belief fund child Tucker Carlson, mentioned he’s fucked if Trump loses. Why he’s threatening me with a superb time, I don’t know, however it in all probability has one thing to do with all of the ketamine.
If Musk does go down, although, that might probably be dangerous information for each firm he runs however particularly Tesla because it’s publicly traded. Its worth has been fully divorced from its merchandise and income for years now, and with Musk now not on the helm, it’s onerous to think about buyers wouldn’t flee. Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla, in any case.
What’s far more fascinating to think about is what is going to occur to Tesla if we assume the established order is usually right here to remain. In a state of affairs the place Trump loses, and Musk tries to return to being his pre-Twitter-takeover self, it’s nonetheless straightforward to see plenty of potential prospects deciding they don’t need to give their cash to somebody so unapologetically right-wing. I imply, he’s already telling individuals he plans to crash the economic system when he guts the federal authorities like a personal fairness CEO who simply acquired a media firm from Univision. Common individuals don’t have a tendency to love guys like that.
For just about every other electrical automaker, a Harris win could be excellent news. She is going to probably proceed to supply tax credit for EV purchases and needs to develop the EV trade within the U.S. She’ll put money into clear power and can presumably proceed the carbon credit score program that advantages electrical automakers, together with Tesla. The bar isn’t excessive, however you possibly can anticipate Harris to be essentially the most pro-EV president in historical past. On paper, Tesla’s CEO needs to be all about that, particularly with its U.S. factories giving it a bonus over automakers that construct their EVs abroad.
The draw back for Tesla is that Harris’s insurance policies will assist the EV trade as an entire, not Tesla particularly. If different automakers’ EV gross sales enhance, that’s solely going to harm Tesla’s market share and can probably influence its gross sales, as properly. What Tesla does have is its Supercharger community, which might nonetheless be a beneficial asset that generates income even when each Tesla manufacturing unit magically disappeared in a single day.
By the tip of the second Harris administration, different networks could have caught up, however at the very least within the close to future, you possibly can’t overlook how necessary the Supercharger community is as the corporate faces an uphill battle in opposition to competitors that solely will get harder each time a brand new EV goes on sale. The truth that Tesla’s lineup is both historical or the Cybertruck definitely doesn’t assist issues, both.
In fact, Musk defenders will inform you automobile gross sales don’t matter as a result of Tesla is now an AI/robotics firm, however it’s additionally straightforward to see buyers getting spooked and making an attempt to place their cash someplace safer than Tesla as they regulate their technique based mostly on the route they imagine Harris will take the nation. It’s additionally no secret that Tesla is a meme inventory and has been for a very long time. There could also be just a few credulous rubes who stick round and actually imagine Tesla is about to “clear up autonomy,” however come late January, what number of of these will nonetheless be round?
If buyers get spooked, issues might in a short time go from dangerous to worse for Musk and Tesla. SpaceX is efficacious when it comes to authorities contracts, however it isn’t a publicly traded firm he can use to fund his way of life. He wants Tesla to stay overvalued to maintain this complete factor going, and some massive buyers exiting could possibly be the falling domino that finally brings all of it down. If the inventory worth is predicated on vibes anyway, dangerous vibes might simply snowball right into a state of affairs the place everybody’s determined to leap ship earlier than the worth falls even additional.
It’s additionally not like the rich don’t have legitimate causes to be fearful about an incoming Harris administration. She plans to boost taxes on the wealthy, regulate firms and proceed Biden’s coverage of going after rich tax cheats. (And miss me with that, “Woe is me, I can barely get by on $400,000 in San Francisco,” bullshit. Learn to price range like the remainder of us, Richy Wealthy.) The nation and the individuals can be higher off below the Harris administration, however even earlier than she has the prospect to do any of that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see millionaires and billionaires act just like the sky is falling as a result of they may not be capable of afford to outfit a brand new personal jet or bust unions and abuse staff with out penalties.
Consequently, it’s straightforward to think about a state of affairs the place buyers need to distance themselves from Musk and put their cash into safer investments which can be much less prone to be topic to elevated regulation. And but, when you get to that time, it actually turns into onerous to guess what occurs subsequent. Possibly it’s attainable that the board kicks Elon to the curb, goes again to being a daily electrical automaker and provides up on pretending humanoid robots will truly be helpful. Given the make-up of the present board, although, that appears about as probably as Musk getting precise jail time.
So what do you assume? Will the inventory crash? Will it’s extra of a gradual burn? Will something occur to Musk? Does one other automaker swoop in and purchase Tesla? Will the corporate nonetheless exist in 4 years? Will Musk clear up autonomy and switch his robotaxis right into a multi-trillion-dollar goldmine? Just about any reply is simply as legitimate as every other as a result of there’s no strategy to predict the longer term. At this level, whether or not Harris or Trump wins could as properly be a coin-flip, so if you happen to haven’t voted already, make double rattling positive you do this. The very last thing this nation wants is Elon able of energy in a second Trump administration.
