Tesla is about to unveil a car particularly designed to be a robotaxi, all whereas it’s nonetheless promoting its long-standing promise that its shopper autos would remodel into self-driving taxis via software program updates.
Some marvel if it is a bait-and-switch.
Tesla’s Unique Promise
Again in 2016, CEO Elon Musk promised that every one Tesla autos would quickly change into totally self-driving and able to working as robotaxis, producing earnings for his or her homeowners via future software program updates. Initially, Musk claimed this is able to occur inside just a few years, however since 2019, he has stated it might be prepared “by the tip of the yr”—5 years in a row.
Recently, Musk has stopped making agency predictions. Nevertheless, this summer season, he hinted once more, saying, “I might be shocked if Tesla doesn’t obtain unsupervised self-driving subsequent yr.”
Tesla’s Self-Driving Technique vs. Opponents
Tesla’s strategy to autonomous driving is kind of totally different from rivals like Waymo and Cruise. As a substitute of counting on a mixture of sensors like radar and lidar, Tesla bets solely on a vision-based system powered by cameras and neural networks.
Since 2016, Tesla has offered its Full Self-Driving (FSD) bundle for as much as $15,000, promising that future software program updates will allow full autonomy. Against this, Waymo and Cruise have already deployed totally self-driving autos in geo-fenced areas and function ride-hailing companies just like Uber. Their sensor-rich autos are already giving hundreds of autonomous rides every month, whereas Tesla’s system stays at Stage 2 autonomy—removed from the unsupervised self-driving Musk envisions.
Musk has criticized Waymo’s geo-fenced mannequin, claiming Tesla’s ambition is to interchange human drivers at scale, past restricted areas. However for now, Waymo appears far forward in delivering on autonomous driving.
Tesla’s self-driving {hardware} price a fraction of what Waymo’s system price and it doesn’t depend on mapping, nevertheless it additionally has but to work as promised.
Enter the Tesla Robotaxi
It’s unclear precisely how Tesla’s new robotaxi will match into this image. Musk has described it as a “devoted self-driving car” that may not actually have a steering wheel or pedals, designed fully for autonomous operation.
The expertise powering this car’s self-driving capabilities is anticipated to be related, if not equivalent, to Tesla’s present {hardware} in shopper autos. Nevertheless, updates are attainable. The issue is that Tesla’s present Full Self-Driving program, based mostly on obtainable information, is nowhere close to reaching the extent of autonomy vital for unsupervised driving.
For Tesla to function a steering wheel-less robotaxi, it could have to introduce geo-fenced, mapped environments—just like Waymo’s strategy. Tesla has additionally floated the thought of launching its personal ride-hailing service, known as the “Tesla Community,” however this has but to materialize.
Is This a Bait-and-Change?
Tesla homeowners who bought the FSD bundle will probably be watching intently on the robotaxi unveiling on October 10, particularly to see what {hardware} powers the self-driving options. If the robotaxi makes use of the identical {hardware} as present Teslas and operates in geo-fenced areas, this wouldn’t essentially be dangerous information. Tesla could possibly be engaged on its eventual commercialization – beginning in managed environments earlier than increasing its capabilities.
Nevertheless, if the robotaxi options new {hardware} that’s not obtainable or retrofittable for present Tesla autos, homeowners who invested in FSD could really feel Tesla has misled them. The priority is that their autos, regardless of guarantees, could by no means change into totally autonomous robotaxis.
Electrek’s Take
There’s rising skepticism that Tesla’s HW3 autos, of which there are tens of millions on the highway, will ever obtain unsupervised self-driving. Final yr, Musk claimed FSD on HW3 was six months forward of HW4, however that timeline has since flipped. Contemplating Tesla wants a large enchancment in its self-driving system—roughly 1,000 occasions extra miles between essential interventions — it’s arduous to see HW4 autos reaching unsupervised self-driving anytime quickly, not to mention HW3.
Tesla could not admit defeat on HW3 simply but, however this robotaxi unveiling will probably be a vital second for the corporate’s self-driving guarantees and the shoppers who believed in them.
If it launches a geo-fenced robotaxi system with new {hardware}, I believe we might see Tesla begin to again observe a few of its claims about HW3 and even HW4 ultimately.
What do you suppose? Tell us within the remark part under.
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